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This paper proposes a new foresight approach to estimate the impact of public health emergencies on hotel demand. The forecasting-based influence evaluation consists of four modules decomposing hotel demand before an emergency, matching each decomposed component to a forecasting model, combining the predictions as the expected demand after the emergency, and estimating the impact by comparing actual demand against that predicted. The method is applied to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on Macao's hotel industry. The empirical results