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Similarly, the predicted time for the end of the wave of the epidemic (considering as surrogate marker the time at which 99% of the total cases are predicted to occur) was highly variable, ranging from 64 to 136 (median 99) days. We analyzed the impact of local and interventional variables on the epidemic curve in each Region. The number of cases correlated inversely with the distance from the area in which first cases were detected and directly also with the gross domestic product pro capite (as a marker of industrial activity) of the
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