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China is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, and the Chinese government proposes to reduce carbon intensity (CI) by 65% in 2030 compared with 2005. However, literature analyzing whether the current emission reduction policies can effectively help CI reach the policy target is rare. China's CI data from 1978 to 2019, divided into phases using the Bai and Perron (BP) breakpoint test, are evaluated in this study. A dynamic scenario simulation analysis using the STIRPAT-PLS framework and Monte Carlo simulation is established